John Ehlers Seminars

John Ehlers, the developer of MESA, speaks at seminars using PowerPoint files. These have been converted to PDF files for download on the internet. Download each by selecting their associated HyperText.


2013 MTA Webinar

Spectral Dilation - Presented to the MTA in March 2013.

Everyone knows that cycles with longer periods have larger swings. Like the weather, nobody does anything about it although it has a major impact on virtually all technical indicators. This webinar describes the market structure, how to filter quantization noise, how to remove spectral dilation, and how to improve indicator performance.
• How to easily identify the spectral dilation problem in indicators
• Use a Super Smoother Filter instead of moving averages (code provided)
• Use a Roofing Filter to limit the cycle periods of interest and eliminate spectral dilation (code provided)

Spectral Dilation 583Kb

View Archived Webinar


Trend Modes and Cycle Modes

Presented to the MTA in June 2010. It addresses one of the major problems in quantitative analysis - how to detect when to trade the trend and when to trade the cycle.
• Defines Trend Modes and Cycle Modes
• Explains the problem is how to identify the correct mode for trading
• Creates a simplified market model to facilitate analysis
• EasyLanguage code to measure cycle amplitude and trend slope
• Describes the Trend Vigor Indicator - with EasyLanguage code

Trend Modes and Cycle Modes 389Kb


2008 Traders Expo

Presented at the Los Angeles Traders Expo in June 2008. It is an extract from the Runner Up to the MTA's Charles H. Dow Award on how to build trading strategies by measuring the Probability Density Function and anticpate market turning points.

•The implication of the various methods of detrending
• How to measure Probability Density Functions (with EasyLanguage Code)
• Two strategies to handle Sinewave-like PDFs in trading systems
• A trading strategy for RSI detrending
• Why and how to use a Fisher Transform in building a trading system
• A description of my new website

2008TradersExpo, download 1,490Kb


Colleagues In Trading 06

A one-day seminar covering a wide range of topics, including:
• Wave Synthesis
• Momentum Functions
• Moving Averages
• The importance of considering indicator lag
• Measuring market Probility Density Functions
• Survey of cycle measurement techniques
• Adaptive Trading Strategies
• Evaluating Trends
• Evaluating Trading Systems

ColleaguesInTrading, download 1,635Kb



The key points covered in this seminar are:
• Eight different nonlinear smoothers are described (with EL code)
• Buy/Sell Event is created to enable the indicators to become strategies
• Hysteresis Channel is added to preclude whipsaw trades
• Stop Loss is added as a safety net
• Trading results are given

TSWorld05, download 2,098Kb



The key points covered in this seminar are:
• Probability of market prices are explained
• EL code is given to create Probability Distribution Functions (PDF)
• Fisher Transform to yield a near Normal PDF is described (with EL code)
• Strategies using the Fisher Transform (with EL Code) are given with trading results
• Novel Indicators are created using the Inverse Fisher Transform

TSWorld04, download 1,872Kb


AfTA 2003: Intantanteous Trendline

The key points covered in this seminar are:
• Market Trend Modes and Cycle Modes
• Derivation of a new Instantaneous Trendline (A Trend with no lag)
• Instantaneous Trendline Indicator
• Derivation of a Leading Trade Signal
• Instantaneous Trendline Automatic Trading System
• Derivation of a complementary Cycle Mode Indicator (Oscillator)

AfTA May 03, download 2,047Kb


TAOTN 2002

The key points covered in this seminar are:
• The philosophical reason for market cycles
• The comparison of MESA and Fast Fourier Transforms (FFTs)
• Basic Tools: Moving Averages and Momentum Functions
• FIR Filters
• Isolating the Cyclic Component - comparison to the Stochastic RSI
• Fisher Transformer Description

TAOTN2002, download 28 Kb



This seminar describes how to generate predictive filters for technical analysis. These are the major topics:
• Why Lag is Important
• How to Compute Lag
• Higher Order Filters
• The Essence of Predictive Filters
• Linear Kalman Filters
• Nonlinear Kalman Filters
• Optimum Predictive Filters
• Zero Lag Smoothing

PREDICT, download 371Kb



These are the major topics:
• Drunkard's walk explanation of why market cycles exist
• Description of a cycle
• Description of the Sinewave Indicator
• Comparison of Cycle Finder methods
• Moving Average Comparisons

MESA96, download 143Kb